Can Utes get right against TCU?

Despite the fact that both teams come into the contest on a downward trend — Utah having lost its last two games and TCU losing three of its last four — Saturday night’s game still carries a lot of intrigue from the Utes’ perspective.
When the two old Mountain West foes meet again as conference mates for the first time since 2010, the stakes aren’t nearly as high as they were the last three times the two teams met.
From 2008-10, Utah and TCU were each highly ranked and playing for a spot in a BCS bowl. The Utes got past the Horned Frogs in 2008 en route to an undefeated season capped off with a Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, in one of the most memorable games in Utah history. In 2009 and 2010, it was TCU blowing out Utah to effectively punch its ticket to two consecutive BCS bowl games, including a Rose Bowl win in the 2010 season.
While Saturday’s contest might not carry the importance of the last three times the schools met, it’s still an inflection point in the season for Utah.
With two consecutive losses to the Arizona schools, including a 27-19 defeat at the hands of Arizona State last week, Big 12 championship contention is all but out the window for the Utes, barring miraculously running the table and seeing results from other teams go their way.
What makes this game so interesting, aside from seeing how Utah will respond after losing two straight and holding a players-only meeting this week, is that the Utes have been forced to turn the page to the future.
Starting quarterback Cam Rising, who last week played for the first time since early September after missing three games with a finger injury, is out for the season after suffering a leg injury early in the loss to Arizona State. The keys to the offense — now, and perhaps in future seasons — are in the hand of true freshman quarterback Isaac Wilson.
Wilson started three games while Rising was injured, beating Utah State and Oklahoma State on the road and losing to Arizona at home, but for at least some of those games, Utah was implementing two game plans — one for Rising and one for Wilson.
Tailoring one game plan to Wilson’s strengths won’t fix all the problems with Utah’s offense right now — the Utes’ red-zone woes, turnovers with Wilson at the helm and lack of scoring have been well documented — but it’s going to give him, and the offense, a better shot at fixing those issues.
It’ll be interesting to see what offensive changes have been made this week to help Wilson out. One difference you might see, according to offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, is more plays under center — something Rising couldn’t do due to his finger injury. Ludwig should also give Wilson more quick options, like screen plays, since teams have been blitzing him at nearly a 43.5% rate.
“Some of the plays we usually are under center, we were not under center, so we’ll go back to that and a little bit more of true Utah football, what we wanted to do, what Cam wanted to do, but he was unable to physically,” Ludwig said.
While much of the attention Saturday night will be on Wilson, there may be a heavy dose of running back Micah Benard. TCU has one of the nation’s best pass defenses — eighth in the nation, allowing just 155.5 yards per game — and are generally pretty good in coverage.
Part of the reason why teams are passing for just 155.5 yards per game against the Horned Frogs is because they’re rushing the ball for the majority of their snaps. TCU’s rushing defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing an average of 180.2 yards per game.
In Houston’s 30-19 win at TCU last week, the Cougars rushed the ball 44 times and passed it just 20 times. Utah should follow a similar game plan, getting Bernard the ball early and often and letting him go to work. If Bernard has a big day, it’ll help take some of the pressure off Wilson, but expect the Horned Frogs to load the box, as pretty much all of Utah’s opponents have done, to make life harder on the Utes’ run game.
One familiar name stands out on the Horned Frogs’ defense — cornerback JaTravis Broughton, who played four seasons at Utah before transferring to TCU this offseason. It hasn’t been the best season for the former Ute in Fort Worth, but Broughton will be fired up to face his former squad.
On defense, considering Utah’s troubles in containing opposing running backs the last couple games, TCU’s running back situation is a welcome sight. The Horned Frogs’ rushing attack, led by Cam Cook, has been one of the nation’s least productive, averaging just 95.2 yards per game. Cook hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards in a game yet this season, and the offensive line has done him no favors in run blocking.
Pounding the rock has never been what a Sonny Dykes offense has been built on, however. It’s always been about the pass, and TCU is putting up air yards at one of the nation’s best rates — 342.8 yards per game — and has one of the most potent scoring offenses in college football, averaging 35.3 points per game.
Utah has generally done well against the pass — allowing just 172 yards per game — but this Saturday will be its toughest test yet.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has moved the ball well this season, and the Horned Frogs have four receivers over 300 yards this season, led by Jack Bech, one of the nation’s most productive receivers (702 yards and seven touchdowns on 39 receptions).
They’ve been the opposite of Utah in the red zone, converting 96.2% of their trips inside the 20, including finishing in the end zone 80.7% of the time, and have been excellent in converting third downs, moving the chains 48.7% of the time.
The Achilles’ heel in the Frogs’ offense, aside from the lack of rushing production, has been turning the ball over, something TCU has done 14 times so far. Utah has been vocal this week about the need to create more turnovers, and Saturday’s game may present the opportunity to do so.
The danger that TCU’s offense poses is the ability to score fast, and score a lot. If that happens, and Utah’s offense continues to sputter, the Utes could lose their third-straight game. If the Utes can slow down the passing attack, force a turnover or two, limit turnovers of their own, and get Bernard going, they will be in a good position to get back into the win column.
“They’re doing some really good things offensively and really difficult to stop, so got our work cut out for us,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said.